Technical Analysis is the forecasting of future financial price movements based on an examination of past price movements. Like weather forecasting, technical analysis does not result in absolute predictions about the future. Instead, technical analysis can help investors anticipate what is "likely" to happen to prices over time. Technical analysis uses a wide variety of charts that show price over time.
Technical analysis is applicable to stocks, indices, commodities, futures or any instrument where the price is influenced by the forces of supply and demand. Price refers to any combination of the open, high, low, or close for a given security over a specific time frame. The time frame can be based on intraday (1-minute, 5-minutes, 10-minutes, 15-minutes, 30-minutes or hourly), daily, weekly or monthly price data and last a few hours or many years. In addition, some technical analysts include volume or open interest figures with their study of price action.
There are plenty of Internet sites that review Technical Analysis terms, tools and charting that can enhance your overall knowledge of the subject.
For my analysis of the Gold and Silver markets, ETF's and individual mining companies, I will be using the following tools and lagging indicators:
Bollinger Bands - A chart overlay that shows the upper and lower limits of 'normal' price movements based on the Standard Deviation of prices.
Candlestick Chart - A form of Japanese charting that has become popular in the West. A narrow line (shadow) shows the day's price range. A wider body marks the area between the open and the close. If the close is above the open, the body is white (not filled); if the close is below the open, the body is black (filled)
Fibonacci Retracement - The Fibonacci number sequence (1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,…) is constructed by adding the first two numbers to arrive at the third. The ratio of any number to the next number is 61.8 percent, which is a popular Fibonacci retracement number. The inverse of 61.8 percent is 38.2 percent, also used as a Fibonacci retracement number. It is the ratio of the Fibonacci sequence that is important and valuable, not the actual numbers in the sequence
Moving Average - An average of data for a certain number of time periods. It "moves" because for each calculation, we use the latest x number of time periods' data. By definition, a moving average lags the market. An exponentially smoothed moving average (EMA) gives greater weight to the more recent data, in an attempt to reduce the lag.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) - An indicator developed by Gerald Appel that is calculated by subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average of a given security from its 12-period exponential moving average. By comparing moving averages, MACD displays trend following characteristics, and by plotting the difference of the moving averages as an oscillator, MACD displays momentum characteristics.
Relative Strength (RSI) - A oscillator developed by Welles Wilder, Jr. and described in his self-published 1978 book "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems". RSI is plotted on a vertical scale from 0 to 100. Values above 70 are considered overbought and values below 30, oversold. When prices are over 70 or below 30 and diverge from price action, a warning is given of a possible trend reversal.
Trend Lines - Straight lines drawn on a chart below reaction lows (in an uptrend) or above rally peaks (in a downtrend) that determine the steepness of the current trend. The breaking of a trendline usually signals a trend reversal.
Volume - The number of trades in a security over a period of time. On a chart, volume is usually represented as a histogram (vertical bars) below the price chart. The NYSE and Nasdaq measure volume differently. For every buyer, there is a seller: 100 shares bought = 100 shares sold. The NYSE would count this as one trade and as 100 shares of volume. However, the Nasdaq would count each side of the trade and as 200 shares volume.
There is a plethora of tools for Technical Analysis and one cannot use them all as the chart will be overcome with lines and will be hard to read. It is best to select and combine a few of the indicators, work with them and refine your analysis and technique. When too many indicators are on a chart, many new traders will have analysis paralysis which will prevent them from taking any action.
